Four bold predictions for the 2024 PGA Championship

Scheffler was able to run away from the rest of the field at the Masters because he led the field in strokes gained from around the green by a wide margin. Augusta National features challenging green complexes and run-off areas that demand imagination and soft hands, but that's not Valhalla. If you miss the green this week, you'll either have a simple bunker shot or a chip out of thick rough, which are easier to execute than chips off tight fairway lies while navigating huge undulations.
Scheffler won't be able to separate from the pack this week, and he'll finish somewhere around T10.

Patrick Cantlay will finish inside the top five

It's hard to trust Cantlay at major championships. The American has only one top-five finish and four top-10s in 28 career major starts. If there was ever a week for Cantlay to finally contend in a major, it would be this one.

Valhalla is going to play similarly to Muirfield Village, Caves Valley and Wilmington Country Club — three golf courses that make up four of Cantlay's eight PGA Tour victories. The 32-year-old has always played well on Jack Nicklaus-designed courses. He's also entering the tournament completely under the radar, which is exactly where he needs to be to play well. 

Cameron Smith will miss the cut

Smith has become a fantastic major championship performer over the last few years. The Australian has a win and six top-13 finishes in his last nine major starts, and he's missed the cut only two times in his last 22 majors. That streak ends this week.

Valhalla is not a good golf course for Smith. You need to be long and accurate off the tee to compete at this 7,609-yard giant, and Smith is neither of those. He ranks 47th out of 55 LIV golfers in driving accuracy and 40th in driving distance this season. The 2022 Open champion normally makes up for his erratic driving with elite chipping and putting, but those skills will be mitigated this week because Valhalla isn't a difficult short-game test. 

The winning score will be lower than -16

The last time Valhalla hosted the PGA Championship, Rory McIlroy won the tournament at 16 under par. The golf course has been lengthened by more than 150 yards since then, but these players will still be able to tear this golf course apart.

For one, golf equipment has improved immensely in the last 10 years. Players can bomb the ball farther, control it better and create more spin than ever before. The extra distance won't quell the longest hitters in this field. Additionally, the greens will be soft and receptive due to the amount of rain Louisville, Kentucky, has been getting recently. The rain is supposed to pick back up on Friday and Saturday, which will lead to lower scores because players will be able to fire at pins without fear of bounding over the green.

This isn't going to be a grind-it-out major championship. Prepare for a shootout.