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Pictured: Nathan MacKinnon. Matthew Stockman/Getty Images.

Avalanche vs. Stars Game 5 odds, preview, pick for Wed. 5/15: The Over's looking tasty

Originally posted on Action Network | By Greg Liodice | Last updated 5/15/24

Here's everything you need to know about the Avalanche vs. Stars odds for Game 5 on Wednesday, May 15 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.

When Evgenii Dadonov scored the Stars’ fourth goal to pull away from the Avalanche on Monday, Ball Arena’s silence was abrupt. Up until the final buzzer, the crowd emptied by the minute and was as quiet as a mouse

The Avalanche have certainly faced some adversity, but none worse than losing their fourth-leading scorer in Valeri Nichushkin to suspension for six months.

For the most part, the Avs have hung in this series, including two ravenous comebacks in the first two games. When Game 3 hit, though, the Stars put a halt to Colorado’s momentum and won convincingly 4-1.

Then, an hour before puck drop in Game 4, Nichushkin was suspended, killing any morale the Avs had leading up to the game. Dallas heads home with a 3-1 series lead, and a trip to the Western Conference Finals is in its grasp.

Avalanche vs. Stars

Wednesday, May 15, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN & ESPN+

Avalanche Odds	+122
Stars Odds	-146
Over / Under	6.5 +100 / -122

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.

Colorado Avalanche

The loss of Nichushkin hurts the Avs deeply, and it seems to be a snowball effect of misery in Denver. The three-headed monster of Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar have proven to take over games and will their squad to victory. However, along with Nichushkin, Makar’s defensive partner Devon Toews missed Game 4 due to injury, so that’s something to keep an eye on.

Aside from its series against Winnipeg, it doesn’t seem like Colorado has been the same all season. It has kept getting worse, especially its 5-on-5 play with its second-worst 39.15 xGF% (expected goals).

The power play is lethal, but it's a problem anytime the only source of offense is from the power play.

Goaltending is another problem since Alexandar Georgiev has given this team headaches all season long. In both the playoffs and the regular season, he’s played to a sub-.900 save percentage, with a -4.0 goals saved above expected (GSAx) in nine starts.

Dallas Stars

Since the second round of the NHL playoffs started, Dallas has continued to be one of the elite 5-on-5 teams, ranking second with a 60.85 xGF%, with only the Panthers performing better. For context, the worst 5-on-5 team this round was Boston with a 33.75 xGF%.

The Stars have flown around the ice like it’s no one’s business. You can argue that they’re unreliable due to their two hiccups in the first two games, but they bounced back and outscored Colorado on the road 9-2.

Getting help from their top stars (pun intended) hasn’t hurt either. Miro Heiskanen and Wyatt Johnston have led the charge, while Jason Robertson is averaging just under a point per game. The one glaring hole to keep an eye on is Roope Hintz’s status, who left Game 4 early on.

Additionally, this surge doesn’t happen without Jake Oettinger. The American netminder’s regular season wasn’t up to his standards, but his ability to shine in the playoffs was to be expected.

Oettinger’s numbers in 11 games in these playoffs are dynamite. He’s played to a ridiculous .923 save percentage and a 4.8 GSAx.

Avalanche vs. Stars

Betting Pick & Prediction

Simply put, I don’t foresee the Avalanche coming out of this game with a victory. However, the Stars are listed at -146 on the moneyline and I don’t like that value at all.

Colorado won’t go down swinging though. I fully expect MacKinnon, Rantanen and Makar to make this a game and attempt to head back to Denver.

With that in mind, I think this game has a chance to go over. Dallas has averaged 4.25 goals this series, and as mentioned, the Avalanche have only scored twice in their last two games.

As good as Oettinger has been, he’s due to let a few slip past him, especially with the elite talent on the other side of the rink. Georgiev’s troubles are well-documented, and Colorado doesn’t have any better options in net.

Judging by all those factors, I feel good about this going over.